PhD, Senior Researcher at FSEMP, Aerospace Engineering and Management of Complex Systems
The World Health Organization (#WHO) confirmed #coronavirus has officially become a #pandemic. The current coronavirus outbreak has a terrible impact on the economy and human health because of the enormous spread rate.
Implementation of the simplistic and non-integrated solutions, particularly in undeveloped countries, could exponentially increase the negative consequences and could lead the world to pass the tragedy of the century. Therefore the world is facing an extremely complex and complicated problem.
A comprehensive solution is more than only focusing on the efforts of those working on the front line against coronavirus. In this paper, an integrated and distributed network-based management system is suggested and an implementable approach is discussed. Finally, the system functions are analyzed using Boyd’s loop model.
Keywords: #Coronavirus, #IntegratedManagementSystem (#IMS), #DistributedNetworkManagementSystem, #SystemsEngineering, #SystemofSystems
Many politicians are surprised about the CoVid-19 pandemic. They all could not have imagined the challenge’s consequences and had sometimes conflicting reactions. With the unexpected and paradoxical decisions, most leaders are changing their strategies several times, and are looking for a comprehensive answer to a common question.
How could the disaster be prevented or managed?
With the initiation of the crisis in China, world leaders should have organized their possibilities to model the phenomenon in their country. They should have assessed all the country’s capabilities hardware and software to identify shortages. There was a golden time and an opportunity for reconditioning vital capabilities. Also, the country’s statement had enough time for planning, training, and organizing to encounter the challenge.
Unfortunately, the whole world is surprised and is in a state of crisis because of the strategic shock. We have to find the answers to the following questions.
Why did many leaders deny the importance of the problem and its consequences?
Why did the world move behind the coronavirus? Answering these questions and investigating what is required to be done, and what has not been done, could be criticized at other times. Unfortunately, the world moved behind the challenge and happened what shouldn’t have happened.
At first glance, with the beginning of an outbreak, the concentration should be on medical resources. The specialists in the laboratories of Virology and vaccine production are in the front line. The design of the treatment process to fight the Coronavirus epidemic is urgent. These all might be completely truthful. However, its consequences revealed that the world should find a solution to a more complex problem. Providing a comprehensive solution is much more important than the efforts of medical professionals and the development of related technologies.
The lethal speed of outbreak alongside permanent economic and human impacts indicated that coronavirus is a global and complex problem. It consists of multiple interacting Heterogeneous systems. Therefore, it has both types of complexity. It is complicated, due to its scale and magnitude, as well as the virus requirements for various and dissimilar expertise, including large systems or subsystems. It is inherently complex due to including systems with high uncertainty nonlinear interactions and is not manageable with simple or even complex techniques . It looks like all specialists in the field of complex systems management ought to help overcome the challenge.
Misunderstanding, not taking quick and proper decisions besides employing simplistic and non-integrated solutions, especially in underdeveloped countries, will aggravate the negative permanent consequences. Thus this global challenge could lead the world to the catastrophe of the century. Indeed, it challenges scientists in complex system management more than medicine and virology.
A comprehensive solution could pursue in implementing an integrated and distributed network-based management system that has described in this paper.
Creating an integrated and network-based system
As mentioned, this phenomenon could have disturbance on the economic, human systems that have nonlinear interactions, and the discrete solutions cannot be optimum. An Integrated Management System (IMS) due to considering the interactions of included systems could be the optimum and best solution. Using this system helps to manage the challenge based on the precise prioritizing and allocating of resources in various fields.
In implementing an IMS, instead of an approach based on discrete systems, System of Systems engineering processes is used. The global analysis of system-level solutions as various alternatives replaces focusing on local solutions and details. In this approach, before entering details of the affected systems, the macro-level functions of an integrated system and its environments should be modeled throughout the total life cycle of the system.
On the other hand, due to the geographical extent, a distributed and network-based management system is needed to simultaneously consider all affected environments and regions in each geographical zone. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, developed communication technologies, and infrastructures in many countries will facilitate the management of the network system.
The following executable steps are suggested by constructing the network-based management system.
- The first step is giving a proper strategy as an alternative for the strategic mistake that all facilities and abilities must be used to quarantine and treatment of patients. Despite the high priority of patient treatment, if other long-term consequences neglect, the power of the country could be reduced exponentially. Then the other concerns on the health substance become apparent and disrupt it. Many world leaders have moved behind the challenge and dealt only with its apparent consequences. Indeed they don’t cope with all the long-term problem’s consequences. The challenge’s impacts on economic, political, and social fields ignored, and the accumulation of them leads to a non-accountable disaster.
- The second step is utilizing all the national capabilities for confronting all consequences of the challenge. Indeed, it is impossible to deal with this challenge without the participation of all people. Countries with weak democracy and low participation will confront more challenges. In many of these countries, many young, educated, compassionate persons frustrated with the urge to impose a mindset and attitude and have no hope for effectively contributing to the fate of the country.
- In these countries, the short-term minimalist solution is to suspend the governing conditions temporarily to allow maximum participation in times of crisis. Of course, this decision requires the courage of the leaders. Indeed, they have not any other choices in times of crisis, and without the participation of all citizen groups with any attitude, mindset, and opinion, there is no way to overcome the crisis.
- The third step is to organize the decision node that could be made by delegating all authority of other legal positions to arrange all capacities such as hardware and software facilities in times of crisis.
- The fourth step is creating a team for the interpretation of information. This team consists of all genuine, elite specialists in the economic, political, social, and cultural fields with any attitudes and opinions. They have to analyze data collected by other sections and nodes and provide decision alternatives as macro-level solutions. The team is responsible for designing instructions, procedures, and processes.
- The fifth step is to make provincial nodes that could be governors of each state. The duty of these nodes is the global management of each province. They should efficiently monitor the entire province or state using existing facilities and volunteer supports. These nods manage NCOs nodes based on procedures provided by the interpretation and evaluation team.
- All the military and civilian facilities of the country including institutions of municipalities, the Red Crescent, government companies, and so on should be commanded by theses nodes in order to perform the additional crisis-situations tasks. Coordinating and managing processes of both data observation and action sections are the responsibility of these nodes.
- The sixth step is to establish the next nodes based on geographical, dispersion, population indicators, and management capacity. The nodes generating will continue until creating the capability of implementing all processes of observation and data collection for each individual in the country.
- The seventh step is to recruit volunteers as many numbers as required for each node by public request, and giving them the necessary remote training.
With the establishment of an integrated and network-based management system, all the consequences could be simultaneously model in each affected zone. Then proper actions tailored for each domain can be done.
For example, in the urgency and priority health fields, it is possible to determine the current status of all families and individual persons with the assistance of themselves. Specifying the exact current situation at any time and making integrated, accurate, and expert decisions could help to consider all affected people. Therefore proper procedures for planning efficient quarantine and controlling the spread of the virus could be executed. Furthermore, the country’s facilities could distribute accurately proportional to the determined current and predicted future conditions for all affected sectors.
System Functional Analysis
For functional analysis of the system, a simple and efficient Boyd’s loop model is employed (Figure 2). Then a comprehensible and evaluable system classification at each level has been proposed using the model. This model is based on the four processes of Observation, Interpretation, Decision, and Action (OODA) .
The first and principal process to create a precise loop in the model is providing accurate data or information of all people in the country without any exception. Of course, alongside the health status of each person, other consequences of phenomena should also be monitored according to the integrated instruction that includes the parameters of all fields.
Failure to properly implement this process would lead to collect incorrect or fake data, and it will disturb the whole system’s performance. This critical process involves organizing the data collection network, forming data integration software infrastructures, and data validation systems.
Inputs of this process
- Manuals and Technical Guidelines from the interpretation section and all the feedback throughout the process implementation
- Instructions, descriptions of activities, priorities, and required resources from the decision section and all feedback throughout the process implementation
- Extract data from tests performed in the action section
- Generated and also modified data from the results of executed activities in the action section
- The primary environmental data
- Discovered and modified environmental data
Outputs of this process
- All collected data to the interpretation section
This process should be iterative and based on integrated instructions and protocols. Throughout the implementation of this process, appropriate zoning, applicable solutions to attract the needed volunteers, and organizing short-term training is very vital. Without public participation of volunteers, it is impossible to implement this process.
This process is like the heart and brain of the model. It includes categorization, assignment, analysis, synthesis, history analysis, and allocation of data. All interpreted information classified and create decision alternatives with making key metrics. The center of the interpretation process should be in an independent organization located near the decision section and consist of an independent team deployed in other nodes as needed.
Inputs of this process
- All collected data from the observation and data collection section
Outputs of this process
- All data analysis results and decision alternatives to the decision section
- Manuals and Technical Guidelines and all feedback throughout the process implementation to the observation section
- Manuals and Technical Guidelines and all feedback throughout the process implementation to the action section
In this process, the commissioning of all the country’s elite and brain capacity is essential.
The results of all the planning and actions to achieve an efficient outcome are dependent on making smart, courageous, and quick decisions in this section.
Inputs of this process
- All data analysis results and decision alternatives from the interpretation section
Outputs of this process
- Clear instructions to the action section
- Instructions, descriptions of activities, priorities, required resources and all feedback throughout the process implementation to the observation section
The leader of the decision section should have brilliant leadership capabilities to make the right decisions at the right time based on the output of the interpretation process.
This process is the executing arm of all activities designed throughout all other sections. The action process includes all necessary executive orders and improvement tasks, as well as ordered tests in the different fields from the decision section.
Inputs of this process
- Clear instructions from the decision section
- Manuals and Technical Guidelines and all Feedback throughout the Process implementation from the interpretation section
Outputs of this process
- Perform all necessary and improvement tasks
- Perform all tests notified following the ordered protocols
This process is iterative and based on integrated ordered procedures and protocols. For example, in the field of health, it consists of categorization of the patients, execution of medical treatment, quarantine of patients according to the country’s facilities. This section also includes the management, planning, and development of priority technologies for the control of contagious viruses. A suitable solution for zoning, engaging, organizing, and training of the required human resources is very important in this process. Without extensive participation of public volunteers, this process couldn’t be implemented.
Summary and Conclusion
The consequences of the coronavirus breakdown show that most of the world’s leaders and decision-makers have been surprised by its speed of the spread. The statesmen tried to find the best solution with changing and correcting their attitudes and strategies.
At first, the scope and consequences of the problem were discussed, and then an integrated management system was proposed as an optimum solution. Due to the distribution of the phenomenon, the proposed system should be network-based with including many elements and nodes. Of course, the usage of communication infrastructures facilitates the performances of a dimensional complex of nodes in an integrated system.
The functional processing of the proposed system was discussed based on integrated systems engineering processes. Finally, global functions, required nodes, and the iterative loop of data were defined using a system of systems engineering processes. Finally, the four general processes of observation, interpretation, decision, and action were separately detailed using a simple and efficient model of Boyd’s loop.
References https://learningforsustainability.net/post/complicated-complex/  https://fsemp.com/the-implementation-of-systems-engineering-processes-in-the-analysis-design-and-development-of-large-and-complex-systems-challenges-and-discussion/  https://studylib.net/doc/8105326/applying-the-ooda-loop-to-accelerate-your-decision-making
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